
Just before the start of the 2008 NFL season
I made a prediction about the Cincinnati Bengals and how they would do. I then got bold and made 6 more specific predictions. Now that the season is over I'd like to take a look back and see how I did. Let's start with the six more specific predictions.
Specific Prediction #1: The Bengals will go 5-11 this season.In Actuality: The Bengals got as close as they could get to this prediction without me getting it exactly right. They finished the season with 4 wins, 11 losses, and a tie (Thanks, Shayne Graham!).
Prediction Accuracy: 97% (I came up with that number by dividing 15 1/2--the number of wins or losses I correctly picked--by 16--the number of games in a season.
Specific Prediction #2: Chad Johnson will miss 5 games due to injury. There will be plenty of speculation that he's not really injured.In Actuality: Ocho Stinko missed three games due to injury. There was plenty of speculation that he was not really injured.
Prediction Accuracy: 88% (Like Prediction 1 above, I divided the number of games I correctly called--the 3 he didn't play and the 11 I said he would--against the total number of games)
Specific Prediction #3: Chris Henry will get suspended for some off the field misdemeanor sometime about week 11 and will be given a lifetime suspension.In Actuality: I was dead wrong. Not only did Henry not get suspended, he managed to avoid any news of wrongdoing during the season. He was a model citizen!
Of course, he didn't help the team much, either, and there's still a whole off-season where he could get into trouble. Nevertheless, I have to give myself the following:
Prediction Accuracy: 0%Specific Prediction #4: Carson Palmer will have career highs in sacks and interceptions, and will miss a total of three games due to injury.In Actuality: I almost had this completely backwards. Instead of Palmer MISSING three games due to injury, it was closer to the other way around. He only PLAYED in four games and was out the rest of the time with an elbow injury. Since he played so little, he really had no chance to amass career highs in sacks and interceptions. Between him and his replacements, however, 15 interceptions were thrown, which really isn't all that bad. The team did set a team record in sacks allowed, though.
Prediction Accuracy: 35% (No real mathematical reason for that number. I gave myself some credit for getting the spirit of the prediction correct--the Bengals QB's weren't good and Palmer did get injured.)
Specific Prediction #5: The defense will be the worst ranked defense in the NFL. Some of that ranking will be unfair and really be the fault of the offense as the offense will have been on the field for such a short amount of time that the defense just found itself exhausted by the end of the game.In Actuality: The Benglas finished somewhere from the middle of the pack to the 2/3 point of the pack in almost all categories. They were not in the bottom 5 in ANY defensive category. They definitely were NOT the worst defense in the NFL. In fact, many would say the Bengals defense was the lone bright spot of the Cincinnati team this year. The only part of my prediction that was accurate was that the Bengals dismal play on offense probably did contribute to the Bengals defense not being ranked even higher.
Prediction Accuracy: 5% (for stating that the offense would be the real reason for bad defensive stats)
Specific Prediction #6: This will be Marvin Lewis's last season with the Bengals. He will not be fired. He and Mike Brown will decide together that it is time for Lewis to leave, and he'll be glad as hell to get out of town.In Actuality: It's too early to tell for sure, but all signs seem to indicate that I was dead wrong about this prediction. Mike Brown has stated that Lewis is his guy, and Lewis has shown no signs to want to leave.
Prediction Accuracy: 0%So that's how I did in the specific predictions. I got some things right. I was way off on other things. Probably like most people would have been.
As for the overall prediction, the one I said I was making because I was on a "prophetic bent":
Prediction: The Bengals are going to be terrible.Prediction Accuracy: 100%!Thank God it's over! It was like watching
the third Matrix movie. I'd seen the first two, was invested in the story, and felt I needed to see how it ended, but that's not to say I enjoyed it!
When do the Reds start spring training?